Mexico: The 2025-2030 National Development Plan has been published, with an emphasis on energy sovereignty and sustainable transition

On April 15, 2025, the National Development Plan 2025-2030 (the NDP) was published in the Official Gazette of the Federation. It represents the guide of the Mexican government’s purposes and actions over the next 5 years.

On energy matters, the NDP establishes that energy sovereignty is a strategic purpose for the country and the energy transition is a priority. It also states that the National Energy Plan will include new investments in transmission and generation, and an ambitious energy transition program toward renewable energy sources that contribute to reducing greenhouse gases that cause climate change. Specifically, 51 projects are planned that aim to generate an additional 22,674 MW by 2030, ensuring that up to 45% of the energy comes from clean sources.

Furthermore, the NDP emphasizes the obligation to maintain the current ratio of public electricity generation of 54% and private electricity generation of 46%, with clear rules, within the framework of the law, and guaranteeing the stability of the electricity system. It also confirms that the fundamental purpose of oil production with Petróleos Mexicanos (PEMEX), which will be set at 1.8 million barrels per day, will continue to be domestic consumption.

In addition to the above, the one hundred government commitments for the 2025-2030 period, which underpin the development of the NDP, include the following related to the energy industry:

• Strengthening PEMEX and the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) as state-owned companies.
• PEMEX's production will prioritize domestic consumption.
• CFE will guarantee 54% of electricity generation.
• Promoting renewable energy.
• Starting a solar panel program for homes in the north of the country.
• Increasing domestic production of petrochemicals and fertilizers.

It is emphasized that energy sovereignty is a strategic purpose of the NDP, but it shall be pursued with a vision of environmental sustainability. Therefore, renewable energy sources will be promoted in the country's energy mix, and the energy transition will be accelerated with the goal of reducing polluting emissions, meeting national clean energy goals, and honoring international commitments in the fight against climate change. To this end, public policy shall guarantee energy self-sufficiency, reduce dependence on imports, and maintain affordable prices, all with a focus on sustainability, innovation, and technological development.

The NDP confirms that, to strengthen energy security, the State has reserved the exploitation of lithium, which is key for the production of batteries and energy storage. However, the central challenge remains accelerating the energy transition by guaranteeing supply at fair prices.

Currently, 89% of the country's energy comes from fossil fuels, and 62% of electricity is generated with natural gas, mostly imported from the United States, without a storage system to neutralize the risk of shortages. Furthermore, only 11% of energy comes from renewable sources. Given this, the NDP highlights the need to strengthen and expand the electricity grid to meet growing demand, reduce congestion, and connect new renewable generation sources. Likewise, the CFE shall guarantee a reliable supply through renewable projects, clear investment plans, and simplified processes for energy self-supply in homes and industries.

Finally, according to the NDP, the national strategy for Electricity Sector shall focus on strengthening sector planning, guaranteeing access to electricity in unserved communities, modernizing public transportation with sustainability criteria, and establishing clear rules to attract private investment. Likewise, in the petroleum market, production shall prioritize domestic consumption over exports, boosting petrochemical production to strengthen the industry, sustainably increasing reserves, and promoting fertilizer production for food security. At the same time, the hydrocarbon industry shall reduce emissions and adopt clean technologies to decarbonize its operations.

Based on all of the above, the NDP proposes certain public policy purposes and strategies to be implemented by the Mexican government in the 2025-2030 period. The main energy purposes and strategies are as follows:

• Purpose: Strengthen energy security and sovereignty, promoting self-sufficiency with a sustainable approach that guarantees equitable access to energy and reduces dependence on foreign sources.
  • Strategies:
    • Promote innovation and the training of specialized talent to strengthen the energy sector with cutting-edge technology.
    • Design an expansion plan for the National Electric System that guarantees supply with domestic production.
    • Maintain and increase hydrocarbon production to reduce external dependence and ensure energy supply.
    • Sustainably expand hydrocarbon reserves through strategic exploration and production projects.
    • Strengthen the operational and financial capacities of state-owned companies, prioritizing efficiency and environmental performance.
    • Consolidate biofertilizer production at PEMEX's petrochemical plant to strengthen agroecological production and sustainable development in communities with the greatest disadvantages.
• Purpose: Promote strategic clean energy projects, modernize electrical infrastructure, and foster technological innovation to reduce dependence on fossil fuels and mitigate environmental impact.
  • Strategies:
    • Promote the gradual transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy to strengthen economic and environmental sustainability.
    • Promote clean energy generation projects in coordination with ejidos (common lands) and communities, aligned with Mexico's international commitments, to mitigate climate change.
    • Promote the efficient and sustainable use of energy resources to strengthen energy security and reduce environmental impact.
    • Promote the integration of clean and renewable energy at all stages of the value chain to ensure a sustainable and competitive energy supply.
    • Promote the sustainable and strategic use of critical minerals such as lithium to strengthen the energy industry and ensure its economic and social benefits.
    • Promote electrification and the use of clean energy in public and freight transport to improve their efficiency and sustainability.